★彡 bayes_academy.html — Arona Explorer ×

BAYES ACADEMY

Koyuki's Official Field Guide ♪ est. 2026
Nihahahaha~ ♪
  WARNING: System has been hacked! Too many Koyuki!  ✿  NIHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!  ✿  Hoshino-senpai recommends you take a nap (◕‿◕✿)  

Welcome to Bayes Academy

Good morning, Sensei~ Koyuki was looking for you and has requested your presence at the Millennium Science School, room nr 432. Please don't keep her waiting! ヾ(•ω•`)o

— Arona

Nihaha~! Sensei, you actually came! I’ve been waiting forever~!

Wait, wait, wait ~ don't just stand in the doorway! Come in, come in! Grab a snack from under the sofa (don't ask), pick a comfy spot, and let me show you around. This is Bayes Academy, and yours truly, Kurosaki Koyuki, is going to be your totally-not-trustworthy-but-actually-pretty-good-at-this guide. Lucky you! Or… lucky me? Eh, we'll figure out the probabilities later. Yahahaha!

What do you mean you don't know what this place is? Sensei... sigh Okay okay, listen up, because this part is actually important (I know, weird coming from me). This is a course about Bayesian statistics ~ taught alongside a programming language called Julia. And before you click away going "Ugh, math??? computers??? scary!!!" ~ hold on a second! Hear me out! Because here's the thing, Sensei: Bayesian stats is literally just gambling with extra steps. And who doesn't love gambling? Hey, don't look at me like that! I'm serious! It's all about hunches, guesses, taking your best shot, and then updating your guess when new stuff happens. You know ~ like life! Like cards! Like trying to figure out if the upperclassmen noticed you snuck out of the Self-Reflection Room! That kind of thing.

If you've ever thought "hmm, I bet it's gonna rain today" and then changed your mind when you saw the sky was bright blue ~ congratulations! You're already doing Bayesian inference. You just didn't know it had a fancy name. Nihaha!

Look, I'm gonna be real with you, because I HATE being lied to about what I'm signing up for. This is not one of those courses where someone in a stiff suit throws formulas at you like you're a vending machine that spits out homework. This is not going to make you memorize a hundred Greek letters and then quiz you on them like that's the same thing as understanding. This is not going to pretend that statistics and science is some kind of sacred holy thing you have to bow down to.

Ugh. I've SAT through that kind of class. You know, when the professor has clearly drunk too much of their own kool-aid to realize they're speaking a foreign language? Document after document, problem after problem, walls of text pasted on a soul-sucking blank background with no idea what any of it actually MEANS? My brain can't take it! And I bet yours can't either! So we're not doing that here. We're here to learn AND play! After all, that's what real learning's all about ~ having fun and exploring the unknown! (and maybe sometimes getting in a little trouble, niheheh...)

Calculations? They're actually really easy! ...Not that I like doing them, though. So I'm gonna keep them to a minimum, and when we DO need them, I'll walk you through it like a friend, not like a textbook, and we'll let Julia do most of the work. Okay? My main goal here is to build your intuition and hopefully motivate you to learn more on your own. Bayesian inference should be intuitive! If it's not, then that's on me. And guess what, Sensei? We're gonna mess up on purpose. A lot. Seriously! We're gonna make wrong guesses, see what happens, and learn from it. That's the whole point of being Bayesian ~ updating when you're wrong! If you never get to be wrong, how are you supposed to learn anything or have any fun?

So what are you waiting for, Sensei? Click the button below and let's start learning! If anything, there's a decent probability you'll come out of this course being a little bit less of a sucker. Yahahaha!

P.S. ~ Don't worry if you get stuck. I get stuck all the time. The difference is I never give up. Neither should you. Information is power after all, and you've got BOTH the internet and LLMs at your fingertips?! Now that's a lot of power! Utilize it, but be careful ~ it's a dog-eat-dog world out there, and we're all dumber than we think, nihahaha!

Click to expand

Bezanson, J., Edelman, A., Karpinski, S., & Shah, V. B. (2017). Julia: A fresh approach to numerical computing. SIAM Review, 59(1), 65–98.
Ge, H., Xu, K., & Ghahramani, Z. (2018). Turing: A Language for Flexible Probabilistic Inference. International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, 1682–1690. http://proceedings.mlr.press/v84/ge18b.html
Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., Dunson, D. B., Vehtari, A., & Rubin, D. B. (2013). Bayesian Data Analysis. Chapman and Hall/CRC.
Lauwens, B. (2018). Think Julia: How to Think Like a Computer Scientist. https://benlauwens.github.io/ThinkJulia.jl/latest/book.html.
McElreath, R. (2020). Statistical rethinking: A Bayesian course with examples in R and Stan. CRC press.
Storopoli (2021). Bayesian Statistics with Julia and Turing. https://storopoli.io/Bayesian-Julia.
(I will update this list as I create more lessons.)